Assumptions

Main Edition 2025

1. Introduction

TIMES-Be is a techno-economic energy model of the complete Belgian energy system developed under the TIMES framework. As defined on its website (1), TIMES is a modelling framework used to model energy systems, varying the spatial and temporal resolution (e.g., regions, countries, hours, seasons, years), which allows for the development of both top-down and bottom-up models. TIMES is developed as part of the IEA-ETSAP’s methodology for energy scenarios to conduct in-depth energy and environmental analyses.

The modelling framework uses what is called commodities to represent the flow of energy carriers and materials between processes. These processes can represent energy transformation processes (including electricity production, coke ovens, transmission and distribution equipment, biofuels production, etc.) or final energy-consuming processes (including vehicles, industrial processes, light bulbs, refrigerators, boilers, air-cooling, etc.). The processes, commodities, and commodity flows are used to build the mathematical representation of the energy system, the Linear Program (LP). The model considers all processes and commodities to deliver the demand services which are needed by society, and performs a cost optimisation over the full-time horizon, typically from today up to 2050.

2. Changes and improvements

Since 2022, TIMES-Be has undergone substantial updates, ranging from revised investment costs in the power sector to structural changes in the energy system topology. Key enhancements include:

Steel Sector
- Added Steelanol production pathway and announced future Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) capacity.
- Differentiated primary vs. secondary steel by splitting the rolling mill and post-processing stages.
Transport
- International navigation & aviation are now modelled with greater technological detail, distinguishing intra-EU from extra-EU routes.
- Emissions from international aviation and navigation remain excluded from total Belgian CO₂ accounting, but with reduction targets in line with EU guidelines.
- The road transport sector is expanded with Vehicle-to-Grid/Home (V2G) as a new technology option.
Refineries, Supply & Fuels
- Introduced syngas production from fossil, biogenic, and ambient CO₂.
- Added market hydrogen and co-electrolysis pathways for methanol, synthetic fuels, and feedstock production.
- Updated electrolyser investment costs to align with recent, more conservative data.
- Refining hydrogen demand is now explicitly modelled; source selection is endogenous, allowing SMR-H₂ to be replaced by low-carbon market H₂.
Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage (CCUS)
- Sector-specific CO₂ capture investment costs and energy intensity are influenced by CO₂ concentration and volumes (2).
- Added cryogenic carbon capture to the CCUS technology portfolio.
Infrastructure
- High-voltage grid, interconnections, and H₂/CO₂ pipelines are now modelled by capacity deployment (costs, losses, and energy use) instead of tariffs.
Power Sector
- Comprehensive update of investment costs for all generation technologies.
- Reserve capacity and spinning reserve in the power sector in relation to the installed capacity of variable renewable power plants.
Policy targets
- REDIII targets included per sector and in all scenarios.
- Emissions targets for the Commercial and Residential sectors in line with official projections for Belgium (3).

3. Assumptions

The process/technology assumptions shaping the scenarios (ROTORS, REACTORS, and IMPORTS) combine detailed quantitative techno-economic parameters such as investment costs, resource potential, and efficiency trends. On the other hand, qualitative factors, including the expected year of commercial availability, technology maturity, and anticipated policy support, are also fundamental to describing a future energy system.

In recent years, Belgium’s energy landscape has evolved through the expansion of renewable energy, the political decision to extend by 10 years the lifetime of the Doel 4 and Tihange 3 nuclear reactors, and renewed discussions on deploying additional nuclear capacity, with plans focusing on small modular reactors. At the same time, European energy policy has been marked by accelerated efforts to reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels and to expand the supply of low-carbon hydrogen, synthetic fuels, and other clean molecules. These developments directly influence scenario design, particularly where assumptions must account for the interaction between domestic generation, electricity trade, and the import of synthetic fuels and clean molecules.

Because Belgium cannot meet its energy needs with domestic resources alone, imports remain a central element in the definition of future energy scenarios. Therefore, assumptions are fundamental to correctly represent the reliance on imported electricity, hydrogen, and synthetic fuels in competition with local production.

3.1. Narrative and future landscape (qualitative)

Several factors influence the possible PATHS to reach carbon neutrality by 2050, that go beyond the cost and energy intensity of the technologies and assets to be deployed. In this regard, European and Belgian policies and regulations play an important role in steering the energy transition towards specific objectives such as emissions reduction, a targeted technology mix, and the increase of clean energy use.

In addition, external factors such as constraints in international supply chains, the availability of skilled local labour, and the level of public acceptance are factors that can hinder or promote the speed of technology adoption and the selection of low-carbon alternatives. Below, these assumptions are organised by category.

Demographics

Belgian population will increase by 2050, reaching 12.6 million (4). This is reflected in all the demand projections of the residential sector, except for space heating (see next bullet).
Nevertheless, the average house size and occupancy are expected to decrease, while the number of households is expected to increase to 5.7 million (5). These two aspects are reflected in the heating demand projections of the residential sector, which are increasing more for small- to medium-sized dwellings (apartments, terraced buildings) than for detached or semi-detached houses.

Geopolitics and Economics

Global trade is expected to be similar to today, which relies on integrated value chains and stable markets.
Thus, industrial activity is expected to keep, or to recover, its activity levels as of 2019, i.e., before the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
In contrast, the energy demand of the services sector will keep increasing. In particular, new data centres will require large amounts of electricity (an increase of up to 10 TWh/y consumption in 2050 is assumed, following ELIA Scenarios 2050 (6))

Nuclear technologies

Extension of the lifetime of the Doel 4 and Tihange 3 for 10 years (until 2035) was approved by the European Commission at the beginning of 2025 (7). The possibility of a 20-year extension until 2045 has been raised in political communications.
Tihange 2 & Doel 3: decommissioning is ongoing.
Extension of other reactors (Tihange 1 and Doel 1/2) is no longer possible or very challenging due to a set of safety, regulatory, economic and technical constraints. Although there is an ongoing discussion about the possibility to extend Tihange 1 (11), this is uncertain and was assumed not to be an option in the current PATHS version.
The newly formed government intends to allow new nuclear capacity to be built in Belgium and revive the sector (8).

Low-carbon molecules

Policies incentivising the use of green molecules and renewable fuels such as REDIII are a major instrument to promote their adoption by demand sectors. In some cases, specific industrial sites are excluded from the directive, as is the case with Kairos@C (12).
Ammonia arises as one of the preferred options to trade green molecules worldwide, given that it does not require a sustainable carbon source, as is the case for methane and methanol. For instance, Yara decided to focus on the use of imported ammonia, replacing its existing production site in Tertre (13).
In the cases where new nuclear power plants are allowed, they may be coupled with electrolysers for hydrogen production if this proves to be economically competitive. However, considerations related to safety protocols and public acceptance remain critical and should be further assessed.

Carbon capture, utilisation, and storage

Carbon storage occurs outside Belgium, as there are no suitable geological sites in the country (14,15). Therefore, CCS relies on the development of carbon storage projects in Europe, which could lead to a certain level of competition among hard-to-abate sectors in Europe.
Nevertheless, given the climate importance of CCS and the number of future projects, the carbon storage price could be expected not to follow the same trajectories as the ETS CO₂ price.

Public perception

Public acceptance strongly influences the adoption rates of Smart Charging and Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technologies. To reflect this, a maximum adoption share has been set, consistent with the survey conducted by TML (2023) on market potential in Belgium (16). This maximum share is assumed for the year 2050, while for the period 2030–2035, the values from the ELIA Adequacy and Flexibility Study 2025 (17) have been applied.

3.2. Techno-economic (quantitative)

Several assumptions limit the speed of deployment for certain technologies or strategies aimed at reducing energy consumption and CO₂ emissions.

The annual maximum renovation rate in the residential sector is set to 4% (it could be lower if there is an alternative sustainable heating source that would suffice with lower/slower renovation).
Renewable energy technologies, annual growth from 2030 on is capped for: solar PV (4,000 MW/yr), wind onshore (900 MW/yr), Belgian wind offshore (discrete increase in line with potential) and far offshore (700 MW/yr).

The following tables present the main techno-economic assumptions. All values are expressed in 2024 euros. Capital expenditure (CAPEX) includes both the overnight investment cost and the financing costs incurred during the commissioning phase. In the model, these costs are annualised using a 3% discount rate applied over the technical lifetime of the asset. In addition, variable costs associated with fuel consumption and emissions are endogenously calculated and are therefore not included in the input assumptions.

Table 1: Energy prices and emissions

Class	Component	Unit	Price [€₂₀₂₄/Unit]				Ref.
Class	Component	Unit	2025	2030	2040	2050	Ref.
Fossil	Coal	MWh	12.48	12.83	11.99	10.31	18
	Natural gas		25.92	24.07	24.14	24.76	19
	Crude oil		53.42	39.30	37.51	35.72	18
	Diesel	MWh	53.45	50.95	48.67	46.35	20
	Ethane		46.05	43.76	43.76	43.76
	Gasoline		54.99	48.14	45.95	43.76
	HFO		56.09	41.26	39.39	37.51
	Kerosene		67.01	65.20	62.25	59.30
	LPG		82.64	54.97	52.47	49.97
	Naphtha		43.08	42.47	40.50	38.58
	Oil non-energy use		54.49	40.08	38.26	36.44
	Oil other		54.49	40.08	38.26	36.44
Molecules	Green ammonia	MWh	295	215	180	137	21
	Green hydrogen		251	191	178	135
	e-methane		372	293	229	170
	e-methanol		368	297	228	170
	Green liquid hydrogen		506	356	273	204
Molecules (Very Low Price)	Green ammonia	MWh	295	158	120	82.34	21
	Green hydrogen		252	140	111	81.36
	e-methane		372	215	159	102
	e-methanol		368	218	160	102
	Green liquid hydrogen		506	261	192	122
Nuclear	Nuclear fuel	MWh	2.13	2.10	2.10	2.10	22
Biofuels	Bio diesel	MWh	93.90	128	126	124	23
	Bio diesel HVO		106	146	143	141
	Bio ethanol		134	180	178	176
	Biomass imports	MWh	87.38	77.89	72.19	66.48	24
	Biomass local		26.86	26.86	26.86	26.86	25
	Renewable gasoline		134	180	178	176	23
	Biogas local		66.98	66.98	66.98	66.98	26
e-Fuels	e-diesel	MWh	1,160	853	546	239	27
	e-gasoline		1,557	1,102	648	193
	e-kerosene		1,512	1,071	629	188
	e-naphtha		1,300	942	5832	225
Other	Non-renewable waste	MWh	6.38	6.38	6.38	6.38	28
Other	Renewable waste	MWh	33.49	33.49	33.49	33.49	29
Emissions	CO₂	ton	62	186	298	484	30

Table 2.1: General parameters for electricity generation technologies

Class	Type	Technology_____________	Efficiency [%]	Availability Factor	Lifetime [years]	Ref.
Fossil	CHP	CHP gas	43%	0.90	20	31
		CHP oil	40%	0.90	20
		CHP refinery gas	42%	0.90	20
	Recovered gas	BFG turbine	40%	0.90	40
	Coal	Coal power plant	40%	0.90	40
	Gas	CCGT	63%	0.90	30
		OCGT	42%	0.90	20
		Allam CCGT	52%	0.90	20	32
	Methanol	Allam CCGT - methanol	54%	0.90	20	32
	Methanol	CCGT - methanol	60%	0.90	20	33
Waste	Incinerators	Incinerator	20%	0.90	20	31
Molecules	Ammonia	Ammonia CCGT	60%	0.90	20	32
	Hydrogen	Fuel cell	49%	0.90	20	32
	Hydrogen	Hydrogen CCGT	63%	0.90	20	34
Nuclear	EPR	Nuclear GEN III+	33%	0.80	60	35, 36
	Existing	Extension D4&T3 for 10 years	33%	0.80	10	31
	SMR	Nuclear SMR	33%	0.80	60	35, 36
Renewable	Bio	Biomass power plant	35%	0.90	40	31
	Bio	CHP bio	40%	0.90	20	31
	Solar PV	Solar PV industry/commercial	-	0.10	25	18, 22, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41
	Solar PV	Solar PV residential	-	0.12	25
	Wind offshore	Wind far offshore	-	0.62	30
	Wind offshore	Wind offshore	-	0.43	30
	Wind onshore	Wind onshore	-	0.25	30
	Geothermal	Geothermal	14%	0.90	20	31

Table 2.2: Cost parameters for electricity generating technologies

Class	Type	Technology______________	CAPEX [€₂₀₂₄/kWe]				FIXOM [€₂₀₂₄/KWe]			VAROM [€₂₀₂₄/MWh]	Ref.
Class	Type	Technology______________	2025	2030	2040	2050	2025	2030	2050	2025-2050	Ref.
Fossil	CHP	CHP gas	1,504				76			-	31
		CHP oil	1,613				48			-
		CHP refinery gas	1,240				42			-
	Recovered gas	BFG turbine	1,737				37			0
	Coal	Coal power plant	2,729				37			0
	Gas	CCGT	1,061				25			0
		OCGT	705				24			0	31
		Allam CCGT	2,598	2,341	1,829	1,316	29	27	25	3	32
	Methanol	Allam CCGT - methanol	1,508				60			-	32
	Methanol	CCGT - methanol	1,197				25			-	33
Waste	Incinerators	Incinerator	1,551				244			-	31
Molecules	Ammonia	Ammonia CCGT	834				19			-	32
	Hydrogen	Fuel cell	661				20			-	–
	Hydrogen	Hydrogen CCGT	1,061				24			-	34
Nuclear	EPR	Nuclear GEN III+	11,464				103			9	35, 36
	Existing	Extension D4&T3 for 10 years	1,240				53			0	31
	SMR	Nuclear SMR	10,788				103			9	35, 36
Renewable	Bio	Biomass power plant	2,481				99			0	31
	Bio	CHP bio	1,582				124			-	31
	Solar PV	Solar PV industry/commercial	1,383	814	693	573	18	15	13	4	18, 22, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41
	Solar PV	Solar PV residential	2,084	1,129	935	741	24	20	17	4
	Wind Offshore	Wind far offshore	2,727	2,625	2,419	2,214	82	76	51	4
	Wind Offshore	Wind offshore	3,289	2,625	2,419	2,214	97	64	51	4
	Wind Onshore	Wind onshore	1,388	1,255	1,176	1,097	40	36	31	4
	Geothermal	Geothermal	1,524				30			0	31

Table 3: Cost parameters for infrastructure

Type	Technology______________	Unit	CAPEX [€₂₀₂₄/Unit]				FIXOM [€₂₀₂₄/Unit]	LIFE [years]	Ref.
Type	Technology______________	Unit	2025	2030	2040	2050	2025-2050	LIFE [years]	Ref.
CO₂	pipelines - 600 km	tCO₂/year	46				2	60	42, 43
Energy	island	kWe	1,652				41	40	6
HVDC	350 km		1,655				33	40	–
Power	Grid distribution		5,359				536	50	44
	inter-connector		207				19	50	46
	transmission		979				99	50	47, 48, 49, 50
EV	chargers - unflex		208				-	15	51
	chargers - flex		236				-	15	51, 52
	chargers - bidirectional (V2H/G)		315				-	15	52
Hydrogen	pipeline 650 km	kW_H2	86	77	67	58	2	50	45

Table 4: Cost parameters for hydrogen production technologies

Technology________________	CAPEX [€₂₀₂₄/kW]				FIXOM [€₂₀₂₄/kW]	VAROM [€₂₀₂₄/MWh]	LIFE [years]		Ref.
Technology________________	2025	2030	2040	2050	2025-2050	2025	2025	2050	Ref.
ATR with CCS large size	1,693				85	–	25	25	53
biomass gasification large size	1,619				81	2.05	20	20	54
biomass gasification medium size	1,596				80	2.02	20	20	54
electrolyser alkaline large size	1,732	1,558	1,072	891	16	2.18	20	30	21
electrolyser PEM large size	2,226	2,004	1,305	1,023	16	2.45	15	25
electrolyser SOE large size	5,358	3,437	2,526	1,816	69	2.18	20	30
solar photo-catalytic	1,600	1,500	1,300	1,100	40	–	20	20
solar thermo-catalytic	8,935	2,200	2,000	1,800	50	–	20	20
natural gas pyrolysis plasma	4,818	2,849	1,864	880	63	–	20	20	55
natural gas pyrolysis catalyst	1,144	853	707	561	21	–	20	20	55
offshore electrolyser alkaline	3,598	3,206	2,421	1,637	26	1.28	20	20	21
SMR large size	618	618	618	618	30	0.22	20	20	56
SMR medium size	1,956	1,956	1,956	1,956	30	0.22	20	20
SMR with CCS large size	977	965	940	915	62	–	20	20

Table 5: Cost parameters for renovation technologies

Renovation /Building type	CAPEX [€2024/m²]				LIFE [years]	Ref.
Renovation /Building type	2 Facades	3 Facades	4 Facades	Apartments	LIFE [years]	Ref.
Roof (deep)	66.52	77.33	86.35	51.38	50	57
External Wall	81.32	85.53	92.07	74.62	50
Windows	34.21	39.39	39.31	38.20	50

Table 6: Resources - maximum potential

Resource	Unit	2025	2030	2040	2050	Ref.
Solar rooftop PV	GW	104				58
Wind onshore	GW	20
Wind offshore	GW	2.3	5.8	8	8
Wind far offshore	GW	16				59
Biomass local	TWh	5.4	7.5	11.8	16.1	60
Biomass imports	TWh	9.2	9.6	10.5	11.4
Biogas	TWh	2.7	3.5	5.2	6.8

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